# Compute Availability Factor (CAF) — Complete Paper Specification, Site Context & Empirical Registry

Canonical URL: https://caf.serpens.app
Research Paper URL: https://caf.serpens.app/research
ResearchGate Publication ID: 414150400 (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/414150400)
Foundational Thesis: https://medium.com/@Radomako/when-the-building-becomes-the-computer-ea91674841e2
Author: Richie Adomako (Founder & Research Director, Serpens Inc. Systems Architecture, https://www.serpensinc.com)

## 1. Abstract & Purpose
Frontier artificial intelligence scaling models hypothesize that model capabilities scale predictably with compute. However, public benchmarks evaluate nominal compute (installed accelerator counts) without accounting for the physical substrate required to energize, cool, interconnect, and schedule large-scale clusters. This specification introduces the Compute Availability Factor (CAF), a multiplicative physical availability index decomposing infrastructure delivery into Electrical (E), Thermal (T), Runtime Network (N), and Operational (O) availability: CAF(t) = E(t) × T(t) × N(t) × O(t). We define Hardware-Effective Compute (C_E = C_N × U_H), Physically Deliverable Compute (C_D = C_N × U_H × CAF), and the Deliverability Coverage Ratio (DCR) to quantify whether announced roadmaps are physically consistent with verified infrastructure or exhibit an apparent capacity shortfall.

## 2. The Eight Infrastructure Maturity States
1. LIVE / OPERATING: Substation breaker closed; active electrical draw verified.
2. COMMISSIONED: Facility constructed, CDUs balanced, IST passed; ready for IT load.
3. COMMISSIONING: Power energized to shell; under load-bank or coolant loop testing.
4. UNDER CONSTRUCTION: Ground broken, steel erected; 0 current CAF credit.
5. CONTRACTED: Executed lease or utility PPA signed; legal commitment only.
6. PERMITTED: Zoning, air, or water permits secured.
7. ANNOUNCED: Press release or keynote claim; 0 current deliverable credit.
8. UNKNOWN / INSUFFICIENT PUBLIC EVIDENCE: Evidence absent; represented via wide interval bounds, never assumed zero.

## 3. Monitored Frontier AI Entities Registry (62 Organizations)

| ID | Entity | Category | Grade | CAF Interval | E | T | N | O | Operating GW | Announced GW | Delivery Gap | Confidence |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| `openaya` | [OpenAYA](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/openaya) | AI Applications & Orchestration | UNSCORED | [0, 0] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0 GW | 0 GW | 0 pts | INSUFFICIENT |
| `openai` | [OpenAI](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/openai) | Frontier AI Labs | C+ | [0.09, 0.19] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 1.21 GW | 2.83 GW | 74 pts | MEDIUM |
| `anthropic` | [Anthropic](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/anthropic) | Frontier AI Labs | B | [0.18, 0.35] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.77 GW | 1.08 GW | 63 pts | MEDIUM |
| `google-deepmind` | [Google DeepMind](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/google-deepmind) | Hyperscale Cloud & Infrastructure | A | [0.48, 0.81] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 4.07 GW | 0.94 GW | 22 pts | HIGH |
| `meta-ai` | [Meta AI / FAIR](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/meta-ai) | Hyperscale Cloud & Infrastructure | A- | [0.35, 0.61] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 2.97 GW | 0.81 GW | 36 pts | HIGH |
| `xai` | [xAI (Colossus)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/xai) | Frontier AI Labs | B- | [0.19, 0.36] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.66 GW | 0.45 GW | 52 pts | MEDIUM |
| `microsoft-ai` | [Microsoft AI / Azure](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/microsoft-ai) | Hyperscale Cloud & Infrastructure | A | [0.41, 0.71] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 3.91 GW | 1.08 GW | 32 pts | HIGH |
| `nvidia` | [NVIDIA (Hardware Substrate)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/nvidia) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | A | [0.53, 0.87] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 5.39 GW | 0.99 GW | 28 pts | HIGH |
| `deepseek` | [DeepSeek (Sovereign Frontier)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/deepseek) | Chinese AI & Sovereignty | A- | [0.38, 0.64] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.26 GW | 0.1 GW | 22 pts | MEDIUM |
| `alibaba-cloud` | [Alibaba Cloud (Qwen Ecosystem)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/alibaba-cloud) | Chinese AI & Sovereignty | B+ | [0.39, 0.67] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 1.98 GW | 0.54 GW | 36 pts | MEDIUM |
| `aws-ai` | [Amazon AWS (Hyperscale Substrate)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/aws-ai) | Hyperscale Cloud & Infrastructure | A- | [0.47, 0.79] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 4.84 GW | 0.99 GW | 30 pts | HIGH |
| `huawei-ascend` | [Huawei (Ascend AI Ecosystem)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/huawei-ascend) | Chinese AI & Sovereignty | B+ | [0.35, 0.61] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 2.31 GW | 0.58 GW | 38 pts | MEDIUM |
| `tsmc` | [TSMC (The Silicon Choke Point)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/tsmc) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | A | [0.59, 0.95] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 4.35 GW | 0.27 GW | 24 pts | MEDIUM |
| `coreweave` | [CoreWeave (The GPU AI Factory)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/coreweave) | Specialized Neocloud & Power | B | [0.36, 0.63] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 1.16 GW | 0.63 GW | 48 pts | MEDIUM |
| `vertiv` | [Vertiv (The Thermal Infrastructure Master)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/vertiv) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | A | [0.59, 0.93] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 7.04 GW | 0.54 GW | 22 pts | MEDIUM |
| `g42-ai` | [G42 (Sovereign Desert Compute)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/g42-ai) | Sovereign AI & Megaprojects | B- | [0.26, 0.47] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 1.32 GW | 0.72 GW | 56 pts | MEDIUM |
| `mistral-ai` | [Mistral AI (European Sovereign Frontier)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/mistral-ai) | Frontier AI Labs | B | [0.31, 0.55] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.23 GW | 0.19 GW | 44 pts | MEDIUM |
| `asml` | [ASML (EUV & High-NA Lithography Chokepoint)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/asml) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | A+ | [0.61, 0.94] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.4 GW | 0.1 GW | 18 pts | MEDIUM |
| `samsung-electronics` | [Samsung Electronics (HBM4 & GAA Foundry Substrate)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/samsung-electronics) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | A | [0.48, 0.81] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 1.54 GW | 0.18 GW | 24 pts | MEDIUM |
| `schneider-electric` | [Schneider Electric (Medium-Voltage Switchgear & Microgrids)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/schneider-electric) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | A | [0.59, 0.93] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.83 GW | 0.14 GW | 20 pts | MEDIUM |
| `hpe-cray-frontier` | [HPE Cray (Frontier & Exascale HPC)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/hpe-cray-frontier) | Supercomputing & National HPC | A+ | [0.61, 0.95] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.06 GW | 0.1 GW | 16 pts | MEDIUM |
| `cerebras` | [Cerebras Systems](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/cerebras) | Supercomputing & National HPC | A- | [0.43, 0.73] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.1 GW | 0.1 GW | 32 pts | MEDIUM |
| `riken-fugaku` | [RIKEN & Fujitsu (Fugaku)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/riken-fugaku) | Supercomputing & National HPC | A+ | [0.63, 0.96] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 12 pts | MEDIUM |
| `ibm-quantum` | [IBM Quantum (Quantum System Two)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/ibm-quantum) | Quantum & Cryogenic Compute | A | [0.57, 0.91] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 24 pts | MEDIUM |
| `google-quantum-ai` | [Google Quantum AI](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/google-quantum-ai) | Quantum & Cryogenic Compute | A | [0.53, 0.88] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 28 pts | MEDIUM |
| `psiquantum` | [PsiQuantum](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/psiquantum) | Quantum & Cryogenic Compute | B+ | [0.26, 0.47] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 48 pts | MEDIUM |
| `bytedance-doubao` | [ByteDance (Doubao & Seed)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/bytedance-doubao) | Asian AI Frontier | A- | [0.43, 0.73] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 1.21 GW | 0.58 GW | 36 pts | MEDIUM |
| `moonshot-ai` | [Moonshot AI (Kimi)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/moonshot-ai) | Asian AI Frontier | B | [0.18, 0.34] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.15 GW | 0.17 GW | 56 pts | MEDIUM |
| `baidu-ernie` | [Baidu (ERNIE & Kunlunxin)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/baidu-ernie) | Asian AI Frontier | A | [0.5, 0.83] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.99 GW | 0.45 GW | 30 pts | MEDIUM |
| `tencent-hunyuan` | [Tencent (Hunyuan & Star Lake)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/tencent-hunyuan) | Asian AI Frontier | A | [0.52, 0.87] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 1.16 GW | 0.5 GW | 28 pts | MEDIUM |
| `softbank-ai` | [SoftBank (SB Intuitions & Sovereign Japan AI)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/softbank-ai) | Sovereign AI & Megaprojects | B+ | [0.33, 0.58] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.61 GW | 0.63 GW | 48 pts | MEDIUM |
| `crusoe-energy` | [Crusoe Energy (Behind-the-Meter Clean Compute)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/crusoe-energy) | Specialized Neocloud & Clean Power | A | [0.47, 0.78] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.52 GW | 0.25 GW | 22 pts | MEDIUM |
| `xiaomi-mimo` | [Xiaomi (MiMo & MiLM Ecosystem)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/xiaomi-mimo) | Asian AI Frontier | A | [0.43, 0.73] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.36 GW | 0.25 GW | 32 pts | MEDIUM |
| `sensetime-aidc` | [SenseTime (SenseNova & Lingang AIDC)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/sensetime-aidc) | Asian AI Frontier | B+ | [0.33, 0.59] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.21 GW | 0.12 GW | 44 pts | MEDIUM |
| `naver-hyperclova` | [Naver (HyperCLOVA X & GAK Sejong)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/naver-hyperclova) | Asian AI Frontier | A | [0.44, 0.75] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.15 GW | 0.1 GW | 30 pts | MEDIUM |
| `replit` | [Replit](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/replit) | AI Applications & Orchestration | C | [0.06, 0.14] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 77 pts | LOW |
| `runway` | [Runway](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/runway) | Agents & Generative Media | C+ | [0.09, 0.21] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.06 GW | 0.15 GW | 75 pts | MEDIUM |
| `higgsfield-ai` | [Higgsfield AI](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/higgsfield-ai) | Agents & Generative Media | C- | [0.04, 0.1] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 81 pts | LOW |
| `manus-ai` | [Manus AI](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/manus-ai) | AI Applications & Orchestration | D | [0.02, 0.07] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 84 pts | LOW |
| `ai21-labs` | [AI21 Labs](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/ai21-labs) | Frontier AI Labs | B- | [0.15, 0.29] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 62 pts | MEDIUM |
| `cohere` | [Cohere](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/cohere) | Frontier AI Labs | B- | [0.17, 0.32] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.1 GW | 0.19 GW | 64 pts | MEDIUM |
| `david-ai` | [David AI](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/david-ai) | Agents & Generative Media | B+ | [0.19, 0.36] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 48 pts | MEDIUM |
| `perplexity` | [Perplexity](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/perplexity) | Autonomous Agents & Applied AI | B- | [0.1, 0.22] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.12 GW | 68 pts | LOW |
| `midjourney` | [Midjourney](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/midjourney) | Autonomous Agents & Applied AI | B | [0.14, 0.28] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.07 GW | 0.15 GW | 64 pts | LOW |
| `luma-ai` | [Luma AI](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/luma-ai) | Autonomous Agents & Applied AI | C+ | [0.07, 0.16] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 76 pts | LOW |
| `suno` | [Suno](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/suno) | Autonomous Agents & Applied AI | C+ | [0.09, 0.19] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 72 pts | LOW |
| `lovable` | [Lovable](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/lovable) | AI Applications & Orchestration | B- | [0.07, 0.17] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 68 pts | LOW |
| `v0-vercel` | [v0 (Vercel)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/v0-vercel) | AI Applications & Orchestration | B | [0.12, 0.25] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 62 pts | LOW |
| `bolt-new` | [Bolt.new (StackBlitz)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/bolt-new) | AI Applications & Orchestration | B+ | [0.16, 0.32] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 59 pts | LOW |
| `cursor-anysphere` | [Cursor (Anysphere)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/cursor-anysphere) | AI Applications & Orchestration | B+ | [0.17, 0.33] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 61 pts | LOW |
| `cognition-devin` | [Cognition AI (Devin / Windsurf)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/cognition-devin) | AI Applications & Orchestration | C+ | [0.09, 0.2] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 71 pts | LOW |
| `atnorth-verne` | [atNorth & Verne Global](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/atnorth-verne) | Nordic & Clean Energy Substrates | A | [0.38, 0.65] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.21 GW | 0.1 GW | 32 pts | MEDIUM |
| `teraco-africa` | [Teraco Data Environments](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/teraco-africa) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | B | [0.21, 0.4] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.1 GW | 0.1 GW | 52 pts | MEDIUM |
| `nextdc-australia` | [NEXTDC](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/nextdc-australia) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | B+ | [0.28, 0.51] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.18 GW | 0.15 GW | 48 pts | MEDIUM |
| `alat-transcendence` | [Alat / Project Transcendence](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/alat-transcendence) | Sovereign AI & Megaprojects | C | [0.09, 0.19] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.44 GW | 1.44 GW | 74 pts | MEDIUM |
| `instadeep-biontech` | [InstaDeep (BioNTech)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/instadeep-biontech) | Frontier AI Labs | B+ | [0.3, 0.53] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 45 pts | MEDIUM |
| `starcloud-space` | [Starcloud & Orbital Space Compute](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/starcloud-space) | Space & Orbital Compute | C- | [0.02, 0.06] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.05 GW | 0.1 GW | 88 pts | LOW |
| `groq` | [Groq (LPU Inference Substrate)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/groq) | Hardware & Physical Substrate | A- | [0.38, 0.67] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.23 GW | 0.19 GW | 34 pts | MEDIUM |
| `magic-dev` | [Magic.dev (Ultra-Long-Context & Code Frontier)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/magic-dev) | Autonomous Agents & Applied AI | B+ | [0.25, 0.47] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.06 GW | 0.1 GW | 54 pts | LOW |
| `poolside` | [Poolside (Sovereign Code Foundation Models)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/poolside) | Autonomous Agents & Applied AI | B+ | [0.27, 0.49] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.1 GW | 0.1 GW | 52 pts | LOW |
| `scale-ai` | [Scale AI (Data Substrate & Synthetic Compute)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/scale-ai) | Autonomous Agents & Applied AI | A | [0.36, 0.63] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.09 GW | 0.1 GW | 32 pts | LOW |
| `together-ai` | [Together AI (Open-Source Neocloud & Distributed Inference)](https://caf.serpens.app/entities/together-ai) | Specialized Neocloud & Clean Power | B+ | [0.33, 0.58] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | [object Object] | 0.12 GW | 0.1 GW | 42 pts | MEDIUM |

## 4. Citation Records
APA: Adomako, R. (2026). Compute Availability Factor (CAF): A Framework for Measuring the Physical Deliverability of Artificial Intelligence Compute: From nominal accelerator capacity to effective and infrastructure-available compute. Serpens Inc. Technical Specification v1.0. ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/414150400