↳ CAF WATCHER // CONTINUOUS PHYSICAL AUDIT LEDGER

DeepSeek (Sovereign Frontier) Grade A-

Hangzhou algorithmic titan delivering frontier-grade MoE & reasoning despite extreme silicon sanctions · Category: Chinese AI & Sovereignty

Executive Physical Feasibility & Delivery Audit

Institutional Baseline: CAF Watcher evaluates stated accelerator capabilities against empirical physical reality (interconnection queues, electrical substations, liquid cooling heat transfer, and optical network fabrics). Missing public evidence is classified as unknown—it is never treated as zero capacity. Operator telemetry strengthens assessments, but participation is never mandatory.

CAF INTERVAL
[0.38 – 0.64]
DELIVERY GAP SCORE
22 pts
OPERATING POWER
0.26 GW
vs 0.1 GW announced
EVIDENCE CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM (65%)

Physical Coupling Pillars

Power & Grid Substrate (E): 82/100. Requires a fraction of Western hyperscaler power (~6 MW continuous during V3 training) due to aggressive MoE sparsity (only 37B active parameters out of 671B).
Thermal Dissipation & CDU Limits (T): 76/100. Standard air-cooled and hybrid cold-aisle containment; does not require bleeding-edge 130kW liquid CDUs because H800 nodes run at manageable 400-700W TDPs.
Cluster Topology & Optical Fabric (N): 86/100. DualPipe architecture completely hides inter-node all-to-all communication latency behind ongoing computation phases.
Silicon & Advanced Packaging (O): 62/100. The primary existential bottleneck: completely shut out from TSMC CoWoS, cutting-edge HBM3e, and next-gen American ASICs.

Attributable Public Evidence Ledger

Every claim evaluated by CAF Watcher is grounded in public regulatory filings, utility interconnection disclosures, environmental permitting reports, or peer-reviewed engineering papers.